Technology-displaced workers experience both a near-term hit (longer to get rehired and over a 3% larger pay drop on reemployment) and a long-run “scar” (less earnings growth over the next decade versus never-displaced workers), says a new Goldman Sachs Economics Research report.
The study: Goldman analyzes four decades of U.S. worker histories to estimate how career outcomes change after job loss tied to automation and other tech shifts. It follows more than 20,000 people across two long-running federal longitudinal surveys, comparing workers from shrinking, routine-heavy roles with peers from steadier or growing fields.
The Gen Z question: We often assume new grads are the most vulnerable. The report (and Fortune’s coverage) highlights that younger, educated, urban workers have historically adjusted better, likely because they switch paths faster and move toward roles that complement new technology.
Why it matters: AI anxiety often focuses on “who loses work next.” This research emphasizes a second question: what happens after displacement—pay, stability, and life milestones.
What they found: the damage is not just immediate--it persists for years through slower reemployment, lower pay, and repeated instability.
What leaders can do: The report was encouraging on the benefit of retraining, finding that historically, retrained workers achieved 2 percentage points greater wage growth and a 10 percentage point lower probability of becoming unemployed again.
