As companies integrate and legislate AI, there is a growing anxiety. How much will this technology eliminate jobs? How much more superhuman and productive will we become? Will the outcome be wonderful or dystopian?
The push for innovation creates a mood of skepticism. And it’s one that Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says dates back to the 1850s when steam engines threatened to take over the coal industry. The questions then were “what will happen to all the coal workers? Will steam replace coal altogether?”
This fear that the next wave will swallow the current workforce goes back 160 years and is best described as the Jevons Paradox, coined by British economist William Stanley Jevons.
This “ 19th century theory explained why the demand for coal increased even as steam engines became more efficient and coal became cheaper,” Jake Angelo writes in a Fortune article.
The cycle repeated: Fuel-efficient cars made people worry that gas consumption would drop. The invention of LED lights made some wonder if regular light bulbs would continue. And fast fashion trends threatened the textile manufacturing industry. And yet, despite worst case scenarios, all of these continue to co-exist.
Slok says the same is true today: AI will create more jobs, not fewer . Companies will need to upskill people and then train the full workforce on AI.
For Gartner’s Helen Poitevin, riding this AI wave is not about cutting the workforce so much as it is using AI as ‘people amplification.’
“Workforce reductions may create budget room, but they do not create return. Organizations that improve ROI are not those that eliminate the need for people, but those that amplify them by aggressively investing more in skills, roles and operating models that allow humans to guide and scale autonomous systems,” Poitevin says.
Companies who take that approach will be much more successful than those chasing value through headcount reduction.
This assessment comes after a recent Gartner study of 350 global executives at $1 billion+ companies which found that 80% of companies were doing workforce reductions but on closer examination those cuts had no correlation with AI.
It’s what Open AI ’s CEO Sam Altman calls “AI washing:” blaming AI for layoffs they would have done anyway, just wrapped in a more palatable narrative.
What this means for CHROs:
- Be careful what you call an AI layoff. Internal and external trust erodes fast when the story doesn’t match the math.
- Push back on headcount-only ROI cases. If the business case for AI rests on cuts, the returns will likely disappoint, and it can undermine support for AI. Invest in amplification, not replacement. Workflow redesign, training, and adoption are where the gains sit.
- Get ahead of the workforce planning conversation. CFOs and CEOs are watching this data. The CHRO is best positioned to show how AI can help organizationally.